The Combs Team Blog

Anderson School of Business Says CA Real Estate on the Rise

2011-11-17T08:55:00.000-08:00

The Anderson School of Business is forecasting median price appreciation in 2012 of 11%! And 52% by 2017!
Here is the link to the report:
http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/story?section=news/business&id=8422604

Danville Sales Year to Date April

2011-05-02T18:22:00.000-07:00

Alamo 2011 First Quarter Review

2011-03-30T17:37:00.001-07:00

The Condo Market Review Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo

2011-02-24T07:52:00.000-08:00

Luxury Home Market

2011-01-24T13:22:00.000-08:00

Alamo 6 month Sales Review

2010-07-29T20:13:00.000-07:00

This article reviews the sales activity in Alamo during the first 6 months of 2010. Home sales are broken out by price ranges.

June Article

2010-05-25T17:46:00.000-07:00

Click on Image for Larger View

This Article explores the markets of Danville, Alamo and Blackhawk. Jan.1-May 24th 2010

Alamo Sales Thru September 2009

2009-09-24T19:51:00.000-07:00

2009-08-05T12:09:00.000-07:00

The Combs Team Hi End Properties thru June 21

2009-06-29T09:57:00.000-07:00

This article explores High End Home Sales in Danville, Alamo, Diablo and Black Hawk. The time period is from Jan. 1, 2009 to June 21, 2009.

Please click on the image to see a larger version.

Alamo Family Home 1997-2009

2009-06-02T17:55:00.000-07:00

The attached column/ad outlines the sales history of homes in Alamo that are 4 bedroom 2-3 bath. That's pretty much an average Alamo Home. Just click on the image to make it bigger. The current trend in Alamo is down, both in total price and in dollars paid per square feet. Anyone who is anxious to get into the Alamo Market may never have a better opportunity to lock in to low interest rates and low prices at the same time. I will continually update this chart for 2009 as more sales data becomes available. For the single month of may only 5 homes sold and they sold at an average $370 per square foot.

Alamo High End Sales

2009-06-01T16:05:00.000-07:00

Alamo High End Sales History

In the chart you will find a history of High End Sales $2mm and above going back to 1997. '09 sales are thru May 31st. While Sales price appears to have soared that number is influenced heavily by the lack of sales in this price range. The dollar per square foot price has fallen back to levels seen during 2000. Lack of mortgage availablity and fear among move up home buyers are combining to weaken this portion of the market significantly.

Just clik on the chart and it will enlarge.

2009-05-14T06:55:00.000-07:00

Updates for local communities as of 5/13/2009. Clik on the charts below for a larger view of what is happening in the market.

2009-04-23T15:55:00.000-07:00

Click on Image to enlarge

Market Update Family Homes: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville

2009-04-21T08:04:00.000-07:00

Market Update Family Homes: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville

Last year we wrote a column “Which area is the best, Danville, Alamo or Blackhawk?” The response to that article was so overwhelmingly favorable that we thought it might be useful to update it for our readers with our current market data from Jan. 1, 2009 to April 20, 2009. Here we take a look and see if there are any meaningful differences in value among 4 bedroom 2-3 bath single family detached homes among these communities. For the purpose of this writing we will call this slice of homes “Family Homes” and compare them.
As of this writing there are 58 Alamo Family Homes listed as active, sold or pending. Forty-three homes are listed as active with an average list price of $1,350,043. These properties average 94 days on market and are listed at a square foot price of $433. Six properties are pending with an average square foot price of $393 and 109 days on market. Nine Alamo Family Homes have sold from Jan 1-April 20, 2009. Average sold price is $1,199,666 and average square foot price is $382. On average they sold in 87 days.
During the same time period last year, eight Alamo Family Homes sold for a positive 12.5% increase in unit sales. Average selling price for these homes was $1,417,428 for a 15% decrease in average sales price. Median price dropped from $1,405,000 to $1,230,000 for a similar decline of 13%. Average square foot price in 2008 among Family Homes was $517 for approximately a 26% decline in the same year on year time periods. The rate of this drop might be a troubling sign for the Alamo market which has historically sold for a significant premium above Danville and Black Hawk. This extraordinary decline might be due to the fact that fewer high quality high end homes have sold this year. Days on market declined from 94 in 2008 to 87 in 2009 shortening from slightly more than 3 months to slightly less than 3 months.
Blackhawk is showing 42 Family Homes listed as active pending and sold. Thirty-three are listed as active. They average 72 days on the market at an average list price of $1,354,038 and an average square foot price of $386. Three homes are listed as pending with a list price of $1,174,333 and an average square foot price of $335. Six Blackhawk Family properties have sold in 2009. Their average sales price was $1,321,500. They averaged 153 days on the market and fetched a square foot price of $353. During the same time period last year 7 Blackhawk Family Homes sold at an average selling price of $1,264,575. This represents a 4.5% increase year on year. Could this be an early sign of a rebound? Possibly, however, the numbers are small and perhaps a little distorted. A better measure would be square foot price. During ‘08 the average square foot price was $431 compared to $353 for the current year, or an 18% decline on a square foot basis.
One hundred forty-seven Danville Family Homes are currently listed as active pending or sold. Eighty-four are listed as active with an average list price of $1,149,544. These properties average 78 days on market and are listed at an average of $403 per square foot. Thirty-one properties are marked as pending with an average list price of $834,277 and an average square foot price of $325. They are reflecting an average 57 days on market. Year to date, 32 Family Homes have sold in Danville. They sold for an average price of $876,593 at a square foot price of $331 dollars. It’s unusual to see pending sales listed at an average price below current sold properties. This could well be a reflection of a growing awareness among sellers that there is fierce competition for very few buyers and that in order to sell, homes must be priced aggressively or they languish unsold.
During the same time period last year 41 Danville Family Homes sold. The average selling price was $1,049,522. They sold in an average of 63 days at a square foot price of $389. Sales price and square foot price have declined approximately 15%, significantly less than either Black Hawk or Alamo.
It is noteworthy that Family Homes in each of the communities of Blackhawk, Alamo and Danville have shed some value with Alamo experiencing the greatest price per square foot decline of
-26% and Danville the least with a -15% drop. A bright spot worth mentioning is that homes are selling somewhat faster and the interest rates remain extraordinarily low which bodes well for the market in the months ahead.

If you would like to receive a copy of our “Family Home Review” including the raw data, please send me an email joecombs@thecombsteam.com. Please include “Family Home” in the subject line. We’ve started a Web Blog and we are including timely market data not elsewhere available on it. To access the blog type http://thecombsteam.blogspot.com/ into your web browser and become blogging buddies with me.

Data presented in this column is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the Contra Costa and Alameda MLS service and other quoted sources. Joe and Nancy Combs, Remax and the MLS service do not guarantee the accuracy of this information.

Great New Listing in Danville

2009-04-03T09:33:00.000-07:00

Nancy and I just listed this fantastic private estate in Danville. Beautifully Updated Home, magnificent landscaping, views. Click on the link below to see this beauty.

http://www.postlets.com/realestate/mini_250.php?pid=2011482

Home Gain Survey Results

2009-03-27T12:33:00.000-07:00

Home Gain recently surveyed Sellers concerning the perceived value of their homes in the new environment. Please click on the link or paste it into your browser to see the survey.

http://blog.homegain.com/polls/results-of-realtor-home-values-survey/

2009-03-24T13:16:00.000-07:00

Real Estate 2009: “80 Days”; Is This The Bottom?

As a kid, I read the book “Around the World in 80 Days” and was amazed at what could be accomplished in such a short span of time. With almost a full quarter of 2009 behind us, as of March 21, 2009 or eighty days into the year, we wanted to examine this year’s data for each of our important markets including, Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville. This “80 Day” Review will include all properties sold between January 1st and March 21st for both 2008 and 2009. Homes that transferred hands without a reported purchase price are included in the unit sales counts but are excluded from statistical analysis.

There are currently 147 homes listed as active pending and sold in Alamo. One hundred seventeen homes are listed as active and encouragingly 12 homes are listed as pending. Significantly more Alamo homes sold in 2009 than sold in the same time period in 2008. Sixteen homes sold in 2008 compared to 18 in 2009 for a 12.5% increase in unit sales. Average sales price increased 10% in the same year to year comparison moving up from $1,592,401 in ’08 to $1,608,058 in ’09. Price paid per square foot however did not follow suit and fell from $443 in ‘08 to $413 in the same ‘09 time period for a -7% decline. Alamo’s current median price for sold listings stands at $1,245,000.

There are currently 89 homes listed as active pending and sold in Blackhawk. 75 are listed as active and 5 are pending sale. Unit sales in Blackhawk remained unchanged at 9 homes sold. Average price declined significantly in 2009 slipping from $1,261,891 in 2008 to $1,118,500 in 2009 for a -13% average price decline. Average price paid per square foot for a Blackhawk home dropped from $394 per square foot from ’08 to $332 paid in ’09 for a -16% decline. Blackhawks’ current median price for sold listings stands at $1,130,000 about 9% below Alamo’s current median price.

Unit sales of homes in Danville decreased most significantly from 69 in 2008 to 60 in ’09 for a -15% decline in unit sales. Average price declines were notably more for Danville than for either the Alamo or Blackhawk markets. Average price declined -14% falling from $$946,534 in 2008 to $810,081 in 2008. Price paid per square foot declined from $393 paid per square foot in 2008 to $333 per square foot in 2009 for -13% drop in price. Danville’s current median price for sold listings stands at $742,500. An explanation for the difference between Danville and Alamo/Blackhawk would be the higher percentage of Condo and Townhome sales which push the average prices lower.

On balance the start 2009 seems to suggest a marked slowing in market declines if not the bottom and beginning of a turnaround. Unit sales numbers suggest a positive momentum, and Alamo’s positive price gains could be the harbinger of better days ahead for our local housing market. Please keep reading our column and we will discover together what the future may have in store.

If you would like to receive a copy of our “80 Day Review” including the raw data, please send me an email joecombs@thecombsteam.com. Please include “80 Day Review” in the subject line. We’ve started a Web Blog and we are including timely market data not elsewhere available on it. To access the blog type http://thecombsteam.blogspot.com/ into your web browser and become blogging buddies with me.

#30#

2009-03-13T10:04:00.000-07:00

Please Clik on Image to

View.

Well, it looks like inventory is beginning to decline a bit and sales are up. Since Springtime is historically the peak seasoon for real estate, it may or may not mean anything. Sales within the Fannie May Limits seem to be doing much better than non qualifying properties. There is a bit of a drag on the upper end of market.

2009-03-11T17:24:00.000-07:00

Here are the latest Market Stats.

clik on the image to make it larger.

2009-03-06T08:07:00.000-08:00

Here are some local Market Statistics
(Click on Image for a larger View)

2009-03-04T10:19:00.000-08:00

Nancy and I had the opportunity to work the polls for the Alamo Incorporation Election at the New Life Church in Alamo, yesterday. Special thanks to the church for opening their facilities for this important community event.

We had a tremedous voter turnout all day long. Not sure what percent of the registered voters actually voted, but it must have been a large one. It was truly gratifying to see democracy at work. I think the voters were far better prepared for this vote than during the Presidential Election in November. What really impressed me were the number of families with small children who brought them with them to the polls. I can't think of a better way to instill in the young ones a sense of civic responsibility.

Precinct 9 where we worked was staffed by an incredible group of people who took their resposibilities very seriously. Judging by what I read in the news this morning. It looks like the no vote carried the day. I wonder if it might have been a different outcome in a more positive economy than we are experiencing right now. We will never know the answer to that question.

It never ceases to amaze me at how complicated the election process is and how such great care is taken to ensure that every legitimate voter has his vote count. On the other hand the process is so convoluted and confusing that it is incredibly difficult to follow the process and that convinces me that we don't want government, any government, managing health care.

We were delighted that the local media afforded so much attention to the political process in Alamo. We made the news and both Channel 5 and Channel 7 filmed portions of the big day. I saw myself on Television and it is true that the camera adds 5 lbs. In my case at least 5 lbs. At any rate, it was lots of fun and I would be happy to do it again. Nancy and I were paid for our efforts and the proceeds have been earmarked for a charity.

2009-02-24T09:39:00.001-08:00

Condos and Land Year in Review : Glimmers of Hope

We spend a lot of time talking about Real Estate from the perspective of single family homes. Today we thought we would take a look at all that has happened in the rest of the market for Townhomes, Condos and Land. For the purpose of this review we have combined the geographies of Alamo, Black Hawk, Diablo and Danville into a single market for both Multi-Units (Condos) and Land.
During the year ended Dec.31, 2008 the total value of the Condo market as represented by sold units was $44,818,250. The market in 2007 was $76,336,050 for about -41% decline in overall market value. In 2007 a total of 129 Condos changed hands while in 2008 only 86 units were exchanged. This represents a unit decline of 33% and hints of continued price erosion. The average sold price in 2008 was $521,142 per unit while in 2007 the average sold price equaled $591,752. This works out to be about a -22% price decline year on year suggesting that no bottom is within sight. Dollars paid per square foot in 2008 averaged $333 compared to $398 per square foot paid in 2007. This represents a -16% price erosion on this measure and while obviously negative can be viewed as modestly encouraging. That this decline is not equal to or greater than the declines on our other measures may be noted as a positive sign of beginning resistance to declines in value and could possibly point to decelerating decline and possible stabilization in the months ahead. Not surprising, days on market increased between 2007 and 2008 from 49 to 65.
O.K. that’s what happened. Let’s take a look at what’s happening in 2009. As of this writing, (Feb 18, 2009) there are 72 multi-units listed as active, pending and sold. Fifty-two are listed as active. Their list prices range from $277,900 to $999,000 and carry an average price per square foot of $333 which is right in line with recent historical sold data. Sixteen properties are listed as pending and range in price from $345,000 to $665,900 and are pending at an average square foot price of $336 per square foot. Four properties are listed as sold and carry an average selling price of $485,250 and an average price per square foot price of $291. This definitely represents the further anticipated price decline mentioned earlier. We should not be surprised if the current pending sales close nearer to this number. That said, it is very encouraging indeed that 20 properties are pending and sold at this early stage of 2009 and if we extrapolate these more recent data throughout the new year the Condo market for 2009 might possibly exceed 120 units sold and top $60,000,000 in overall sales. That would clearly signal a turnaround. As markets typically turn positive at the lower end first, this may likely be our first hopeful sign in months and it is important to note that it is occurring absent the latest stimulus package which may tend to accelerate a rebound in the Condo market. This bears watching, particularly for investors on the side lines and first time home buyers.
Land development may well be riskiest of all real estate investments. In 2008 only 8 parcels changed hands in our market of Alamo, Black Hawk, Danville and Diablo. That is down from 12 in 2007 and represents a decline of 33% in units sold. The market for raw land in 2007 stood at $14,733,500 and declined to $9,936,000 in 2008 for a decline of -33% in overall market value. While the matching rates of decline may be comforting at first blush one must consider the value change as measured by dollars paid per square foot which declined from $35 in ’07 to $22 in 2008 for a -37% drop in value.
Currently 39 parcels are listed as active pending and sold. Thirty-five are listed as active and carry a price per square foot of $20. Three are pending at $29 per square foot. One is listed as sold at $22 per square foot. If we extrapolate the early 2009 market data as we did for Condos, land units sales might possibly exceed 24, eclipsing the combined performance of 2007 and 2008 and account for as much as $20,000,000 in sales. If only half of these sales are achieved the market will match 2008 performance and this limited performance in itself would indicate a bottoming.
In either the land or the Condo market we should not count on a rapid upward price movement. This would require both a significantly increased demand and a scarcity of available units. It’s not likely that we will see both of these conditions together for some time.
If you would like to receive a copy of our Condo and Land Review including the raw data, please send me an email joecombs@thecombsteam.com. Please include “Land” in the subject line. Don’t forget to read our column each month in “The Danville Weekly!”
Data presented in this column is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the Contra Costa and Alameda MLS service and other quoted sources. Joe and Nancy Combs, Remax and the MLS service do not guarantee the accuracy of this information.