Friday, January 29, 2016

The Combs Team Presents: 2016 Another Good Year in Real Estate?


Danville Real Estate: 2016 Another Great Year in Real Estate?

  So, the Fed finally raised interest rates.  We have been expecting it for years. Now that it has happened our worst fears have not materialized. Mortgage interest rates are now lower than they were before the Fed rate hike.  Go figure.


 With the Fed’s action and the implementation of new stricter lending standards in October of 2015, I thought it might be worthwhile to examine the last 3 months of 2015 plus what we have of 2016 so far and compare it to the same time frame in 2014 to determine if any significant change has become apparent in the Danville market.
 

 What we can see is the number of pending sales has stayed the same while the number of sold homes has slipped a bit. Pending sales are 51 in both time periods.  This would be a great sign if sold properties were in lockstep with pending sales. More buyers and sellers are always good for the market.  However, sold homes are down 5% from 194 to 184. This may or may not be a negative as it is unclear if this is a real sales decrease or if slower mortgage processing as a result of TILA/RESPA Integrated Disclosure (TRID) Rule has retarded the movement of homes from pending to sold and this anomaly will self-correct over time.  We will have to wait and see on this one.

  List price for the sold homes has certainly increased moving from $1,013,605 all the way up to $1,136,792.  That’s a big move of 12% in one year’s time.  More surprising is the change in sold price which increased at the rate of 13% from $1,011,397 to $1,127,875.  I would think a change of this magnitude at the slowest part of the selling season portends a strong year in 2016.  If the current pending sales hold this price level it would be a really good sign for continuing market strength.

 Before we get overly excited about the huge price change exhibited here, we should take a look at the relative size of the homes sold and the price buyers paid per square foot.  It’s still positive, but a little less dramatic.  Home size increased 5% which accounts for at least some of the reported increase.  Price paid per square foot increased, from $427 to $469.  That’s a significant increase of 10%, so people are a paying quite a bit more for a home this year as compared to last year.  That is a pretty good sign that we are still in a hot market. Also, since the $469 per square foot is a bit more than was being paid last spring, it’s one more indication that our market is still hot and seasonality is not depressing prices.

 Days on market increased somewhat from 33 days to 35 days.  Both numbers indicate a   hot market and given the 2 days increase in the time it takes to sell a home, one must conclude the market isn’t cooling.  Once again, we cannot know at this time if this this 10% increase is being negatively influenced by TRID. Time will tell.  Unless days on market spikes to 90 or more, the market remains hot. 
 
One can never predict the next doomsday scenario that will send the real estate market into a tailspin.   It’s only happened once in my lifetime and I don’t see another one on the horizon.  I do believe the Danville Market has rebounded, is fully recovered and there is every reason to believe home prices will continue to advance.  While I’m not predicting double digit appreciation in the year ahead, I suspect we will have another very good year in Danville Real Estate.

 Trying to figure out your next move?  Need numbers and answers to your fix up questions to make your decision?  Nancy and I will be happy to provide you with a personal consultation, including a multi-dimensional analysis of your home’s current value, to help you figure it out.  No charge and no pressure just our honest opinions.  Please call 925-989-6086 or send me an email joecombs@thecombsteam.com 

 

Monday, January 4, 2016

The Combs Team Presents: Alamo Real Estate: 2015 Rents Increase By 4%


Alamo Real Estate: 2015 Rents Increase By 4%   

Each year about this time I try to update the market on what’s happening in the rental market place in Alamo.  This analysis looks at rental homes with at least 4 bedrooms and 2-3 baths.  The data runs from Jan.1-Dec. 27.  The data presented here are published on MLS and do not include every property rented during the time periods.  A fair number of rentals are handled directly by the homeowner off MLS.  Unfortunately, when we look at off MLS rentals we can only see the advertised price, not the rent actually paid, so current rents as advertised off MLS, while they may appear to be higher than reported here, most likely overstate the actual rent collected by the landlord.

 On a dollar per square foot basis, rents have risen 39% since 2010 or about 6.5% per year on average.  Average rents have been up almost straight line during that time period with small fluctuations in price paid per square foot. Looking specifically at the dollars collected in monthly rent, the rise is only 38% during the same time period.  However, when we review the size of the homes rented we see a significant difference in size year to year.  Interesting is that the size of a home rented in 2010 and 2015 are nearly identical as are the number of units rented.

 During 2010 Alamo rentals peaked at 11 units and have since fallen to eight or less units.  Given that 2011 represented the market turnaround for home prices in Alamo, we should not be overly surprised that the number of rentals appearing on MLS has decreased since peaking in 2010.  It’s more than likely that the downturn from 2008-2011 created a large number of unintentional landlords who would have been happier to sell their homes as opposed to renting them, if only they could have obtained a good price.  Since the market continues to be strong for Alamo home sales, Why the spike in rentals in 2015?  Could it be that corporate transfers are picking up with the improvement in the national economy?
 
Between 2014 and 2015 average rents increased only 4% moving from $5,475 to $5,679 per month.  This would be considered a normal increase in rents collected.  During the same time dollars paid per square foot declined by 9%.  The cause of the decline is not clear.  A number of possible explanations come to mind. 1. The number of rentals have increased by 50% over the previous year.   2. Rising interest rates are driving people to buy rather than rent. 3. Short sale and foreclosure victims have repaired their credit to the point that they are leaving the rental market and becoming homeowners again.

 Whatever the causes, the numbers speak for themselves. For the moment, we continue to experience a strong rental market and Alamo home values are increasing simultaneously.  If you own a home in Alamo, you will likely think this is good news.  Happy New Year!
 
Trying to figure out your next move?  Need numbers and answers to your fix up questions to make your decision?  Nancy and I will be happy to provide you with a personal consultation, including a multi-dimensional analysis of your home’s current value, to help you figure it out.  No charge and no pressure just our honest opinions.  Please call 925-989-6086 or send me an email joecombs@thecombsteam.com 

 

Danville Real Estate: Rental Rates Up 10%!  



 Each year about this time I try to update the market on what’s happening in the rental market place in Danville.  This analysis looks at rental homes with at least 4 bedrooms and 2-3 baths.  The data runs from Jan.1-Dec. 27. A fair number of rentals are handled directly by the homeowner off MLS.  Unfortunately, when we look at off MLS rentals properties we can only see the advertised price, not the rent actually agreed to, so current rents as advertised off MLS, while they may appear to be higher than reported here, most likely overstate the actual rent collected by the landlord.

 On a dollar per square foot basis, rents have risen 42% since 2010 or about 7% per year on average.  Rents have risen fairly steadily during that time.  Looking specifically at the dollars collected in monthly rent, the rise is only 29% during the same time period.  However, when we review the size of the homes actually rented we see a significant difference in size year to year. 


 During 2011 Danville rentals peaked at 36 units and have since fallen to thirty or less units.  Given that 2011 represented the market turnaround for home prices in Danville, we should not be overly surprised that the number of rentals appearing on MLS has decreased since peaking in 2011.  It’s more than likely that the downturn from 2008-2011 created a large number of unintentional landlords who would have been happier to sell their homes as opposed to renting them, if only they could have obtained a good price.  With today’s Danville average sales price fully recovered from the downturn, fewer people find themselves upside down in their mortgages and the necessity of renting rather than selling has diminished significantly.

 Between 2014 and 2015 average rents increased 10% moving from $4,081 to $4,517 per month.  This is a strong increase in rents.  This strong rent increase is in stark contrast to what is happening in Alamo, where rents have been flat during the past year.  For the moment in Danville we are experiencing nice increases in rents and property values simultaneously.  If you own a home in Danville, you will likely think this is really good news.  Happy New Year!

 
Trying to figure out your next move?  Need numbers and answers to your fix up questions to make your decision?  Nancy and I will be happy to provide you with a personal consultation, including a multi-dimensional analysis of your home’s current value, to help you figure it out.  No charge and no pressure just our honest opinions.  Please call 925-989-6086 or send me an email joecombs@thecombsteam.com.  

 

 

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

The Combs Team Presents: Danville Single Family Median Hope Price Hits $1,110,000


The Combs Team Presents: Danville Single Family Median Home Price Hits $1,110,000 Million

Just to be a little different this month, I thought I would list the homes that have sold in Danville as reported for the last half of the year (Sept. 1- Nov.16).  The first thing that jumps out is the wide variation in sold price and dollars paid per square foot.  The statistical average for sold price in Danville is $1,279,872 the average square foot price is $468.  The median price is exactly $1,110,000. The price swath ranges from $727,350 to as much as $3,775,000 for a Luxury Home.  Prices per square foot range from $329 to $734.  Not one Danville home sold for the exact statistical mean, although a many were close.  Today, homes are being judged on their individual merits and pricing correctly is more important than ever. Location, condition, size and style are just a few of the important dimensions that determine value.  How does your home measure up?

 

Address                                       Sold Price                Price/SqFt

1401 Dutch Mill Drive               $3,775,000              $377.50

1158 Lawrence Road                $3,383,000              $406.90

595 Bradford Place                   $3,000,000              $494.23

116 Laurelwood Drive              $2,590,000              $473.58

2600 FINLEY RD                         $2,425,000              $468.60

11 BRIGHTWOOD CIR               $2,400,000              $444.44

261 MONTAIR DR                      $2,270,000              $567.50

2 TYLER COURT                         $2,070,000              $544.02

170 Edinburgh Circle                 $1,870,000              $429.79

124 Gerald Drive                        $1,800,000              $615.81

342 Love Lane                            $1,730,000              $640.74

106 Capari Court                       $1,728,998              $390.29

3016 Gritstone Street               $1,697,218              $328.73

520 EDINBURGH CIR                $1,657,000              $375.74

25 Barrons Place                        $1,570,000              $380.33

166 ALTA VISTA WAY                $1,560,000              $444.32

140 SUNHAVEN RD                   $1,558,000              $447.32

112 SHADEWELL DR                  $1,530,000              $523.43

963 BLEMER RD                         $1,515,000              $393.30

207 KAITLYN LN                         $1,498,000              $428.00

336 BONANZA WAY                  $1,485,000              $508.39

810 LANCELOT CT                     $1,480,000              $502.38

59 SAINT TERESA CT                 $1,475,000              $497.97

475 VEDA DR                              $1,465,000              $594.32

835 RICHARD LN                        $1,440,000              $553.85

217 STILL CREEK RD                  $1,425,000              $537.94

809 Waingarth Way                  $1,415,000              $422.39

1550 Finley Road                       $1,410,000              $762.99

22 La Vista Way                         $1,375,000              $541.34

208 FAIRWAY DR                       $1,354,000              $579.13

237 ESTATES DR                         $1,350,000              $583.66

307 ELATI CT                              $1,330,000              $476.02

453 VEDA DR                              $1,310,000              $576.08

127 PROVENCE RD                    $1,300,000              $375.29

1250 VAILWOOD DR                 $1,300,000              $506.63

3293 GRIFFON STREET WEST  $1,260,000              $430.92

632 AMBIENCE WAY                 $1,258,000              $356.78

676 DUNHILL DR                       $1,225,000              $397.86

301 W PROSPECT AVE              $1,222,000              $711.29

116 WILSHIRE CT                       $1,216,000              $553.48

100 BEDFORD CT                       $1,215,000              $413.97

635 LAS BARRANCAS DR          $1,200,000              $484.85

817 MALDON CT                        $1,199,000              $368.70

664 BOURNE COURT                $1,199,000              $355.89

63 SAINT TERESA CT                 $1,195,000              $559.72

347 BARRETT CIR                      $1,195,000              $517.76

3862 SHEFFIELD CIR                  $1,185,000              $432.80

2020 CHADBOURNE CT            $1,175,000              $405.73

105 BEDFORD CT                       $1,160,000              $381.45

2128 CARMENERE ST               $1,159,238              $462.77

440 SNOWDON PL                    $1,150,000              $343.39

615 BOURNE CT                        $1,125,000              $333.93

109 BALTANA CT                       $1,124,000              $418.93

608 BOURNE CT                        $1,110,000              $329.47

71 ALTA LOMA CT                     $1,105,000              $547.84

702 Via Hermosa                       $1,100,000              $377.23

1700 COTTSWALD ST                $1,100,000              $383.68

10 MONTEGO PL                       $1,100,000              $516.67

41 LOCH LOMOND CT              $1,100,000              $486.94

836 GRIFFON CT                        $1,095,000              $396.60

652 Thornhill Road                    $1,095,000              $473.82

264 STETSON DR                       $1,090,000              $397.52

145 Tenby Terrace                    $1,085,500              $365.61

115 WESTWICH ST                    $1,080,000              $395.03

38 SORRENTO CT                      $1,075,000              $541.56

1 Countryside                             $1,075,000              $443.12

158 Joaquin Circle                     $1,069,000              $445.97

5182 BENGALI ST                       $1,068,000              $425.67

89 LA PERA CT                            $1,065,000              $524.11

635 Dunhill Drive                       $1,059,000              $370.28

740 EL CERRO BLVD                  $1,050,000              $418.49

110 BLACKSTONE DR                $1,020,000              $378.76

608 MORNINGHOME RD         $1,007,100              $458.61

15 Stanton Court                       $1,000,000              $345.30

366 ILO LN                                  $1,000,000              $421.94

62 VISTA DR                                $1,000,000              $619.20

277 PARAISO DR                        $1,000,000              $425.89

343 GLEN ARMS DR                  $1,000,000              $412.37

37 Lily Court                               $1,000,000              $381.10

568 EL CAPITAN DR                   $993,000                 $435.34

135 GLASGOW CIR                    $990,000                 $380.77

511 Blackstone Court               $985,000                 $496.47

211 El Sobrante                          $985,000                 $520.89

965 CHESTERFIELD LN              $978,000                 $381.29

115 SAINT JAMES CT                 $975,000                 $422.44

300 ALVISO WAY                       $972,500                 $547.89

845 SAINT GEORGE RD             $950,000                 $509.38

206 STETSON DR                       $950,000                 $461.39

637 Paradise Valley Ct S           $949,000                 $536.46

114 CENTER CT                          $945,000                 $438.31

373 SQUIRREL RIDGE WAY      $935,000                 $481.71

1258 Silverwood Ct                   $928,000                 $453.79

26 CEDAR HOLLOW DR            $925,000                 $430.43

449 EVERETT DR                        $925,000                 $416.85

199 Verde Mesa Drive              $920,000                 $733.65

608 Elworthy Ranch Lane        $910,000                 $504.16

3069 GRIFFON ST E                   $910,000                 $533.41

40 MONACO CT                         $890,000                 $523.53

129 VALLE VISTA DR                 $875,000                 $461.01

711 GLASGOW CIR                    $866,000                 $515.78

1199 River Rock Lane               $840,000                 $610.91

459 EL CAPITAN DR                   $830,000                 $503.03

516 ROLLING HILLS LN             $827,500                 $424.79

1647 HARLAN DR                       $825,000                 $499.39

1718 S CLEAR CREEK PL           $820,000                 $394.23

32 SAGE HILL CT                        $768,000                 $470.59

365 GIL BLAS RD                        $727,350                 $563.40

 

 Trying to figure out your next move?  Need numbers and answers to your fix up questions to make your decision?  Nancy and I will be happy to provide you with a personal consultation, including a multi-dimensional analysis of your home’s current value, to help you figure it out.  No charge and no pressure just our honest opinions.  Please call 925-989-6086 or send me an email joecombs@thecombsteam.com.  

Nancy and I have more than 3,000 email subscribers who receive this article in advance of publication. Sign up on our website or just send me an email and we can add you to the list.  I assure you no spam will follow. Wishing you a joyous Holiday Season!

 

 

 

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